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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

NHL Draft Lottery - Permutations of the No 5 Envelope

The Nhl Draft Lottery goes tonight at 8:00 PM Eastern time. It can be seen live in Canada on TSN or in the USA on Versus.

Five envelopes will be opened beginning with number 5 and going down to number 1.

The Ottawa Senators currently hold that fifth spot but there are a couple of different scenarios we could be looking at.

Seeing that a team can only move up 4 spots in the draft, there is only one team that can replace Ottawa in that envelope of the teams below them. That would be the number 9 Boston Bruins (Via Toronto Maple Leafs) who can move from 9th to 5th with the lottery win.

If number 4 Islanders is the first envelope opened in the number 5 spot, then that means that one of the 6,7, or 8 teams, Atlanta, Columbus or New Jersey has moved up into the 2, 3 or 4 spot to knock the Islanders down to number 5.

If the first envelope opened does in fact belong to Ottawa than that would mean one of three things:
- A team in the 10 to 14 spot has won the lottery and not affected the order of the top 5 or
- a team from 2-4 has won the lottery and will select first and doesnt affect the number 5 spot or
- Teams will remain picking in order of standings throughout the non playoff teams.

The highest spot a team has ever moved up from is the Chicago Blackhawks in 1999 when they moved from the 8th spot to the 4th.

Here is a short reminder of last years lottery.



The following are the chances each team has at winning the lottery:

25.0% - Edmonton Oilers
18.8% - Colorado Avalanche
14.2% - Florida Panthers
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Ottawa Senators
6.2% - Atlanta Thrashers
4.7% - Columbus Blue Jackets
3.6% - New Jersey Devils
2.7% - Boston Bruins (From Toronto)
2.1% - Minnesota Wild
1.5% - St. Louis Blues
1.1% - Carolina Hurricanes
0.8% - Calgary Flames
0.5% - Dallas Stars

The following are the chances each team has to win the first overall pick:

48.2% - Edmonton Oilers
18.8% - Colorado Avalanche
14.2% - Florida Panthers
10.7% - New York Islanders
8.1% - Ottawa Senators

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