When Does Size Matter ?

This is always open for debate and largely based on opinion. Brock Otten did a piece on his blog about what characteristics scouts look for. If you missed it, you can find it here. In that piece I was quoted as saying that the NHL is trending towards the smaller defenseman.

Looking at the draft's from 2000 to 2010, the NHL trended towards the larger defenseman heading towards the lockout and just after. But the last three season's its trended back down to pre-lockout days. It's not that just the average size is dropping, it's that the smaller defenseman is being picked higher and higher in eariler rounds.

It's also a matter of opinion, but it is my opinion that out of the group selected in each of the first rounds since 2000, that for the vast majority of time, it is the smaller defenseman that has had the better start/career in the NHL to date. Obviously, there are exceptions, but you can judge for yourself below. It's to early to evaluate the guys drafted in 2009 and 2010, but i included them anyway.

In order to save space and make it easier, I have posted just the first round picks from 2000 to 2010. Players are listed in order that they were selected.

2000

CBJ - Rostislav Klesla 6'3"
BOS - Lars Johnsson 6'1"
MTL - Ron Hainsey 6'3"
PIT - Brooks Oprik 6'2"
OTT - Anton Volchenkov 6'1"
NJD - David Hale  6'1"
DET - Niklas Kronwall 6'
Average - 6'2"

2001

MTL - Mike Komisarek 6'4"
NSH - Dan Hamhuis 6'1"
CAR - Igor Knyazev 6'
TOR - Carlo Colaiacovo 6'1"
BOS - Shaine Morrisonn 6'4"
OTT - Tim Gleason 6'
FLA - Lucas Krajichek 6'3"
PHI - Jeff Woywitka 6'3"
Average 6'2"

2002

FLA - Jay Bouwmeester 6'4"
PHI - Joni Pitkanen 6'3"
PIT - Ryan Whitney 6'3"
BUF - Keith Ballard 5'11"
WSH - Steve Eminger 6'2"
LAK - Denis Grebeshkov 6'
CHI - Anton Babchuk 6'5"
DAL - Martin Vagener 6'1"
Average 6'2"

2003

NSH - Ryan Sutter 6'1"
ATL - Braydon Coburn 6'5"
CGY - Dion Phaneuf 6'3"
CHI - Brent Seabrook 6'3"
BOS - Mark Stuart 6'2"
STL - Shawn Belle 6'1"
Average 6'2"

2004

CHI - Cam Barker 6'3"
ANA - Ladislav Smid 6'3"
ATL - Boris Valabik 6'7"
MIN - AJ Thelen 6'3"
OTT - Andrei Meszaros 6'2"
WSH - Jeff Schultz 6'6"
DAL - Mark Fistric 6'3"
WSH - Mike Green - 6'1"
TBL - Andy Rogers 6'5"
Average 6'4"

2005

CAR - Jack Johnson 6'1"
OTT - Brian Lee 6'3"
VAN - Luc Bourdon 6'3"
NYR - Marc Staal 6'4"
WSH - Sasha Pokulok 6'5"
NSH - Ryan Parent 6'3"
DET - Jakub Kindl 6'3"
BOS - Matt Lashoff 6'2"
CGY - Matt Pelech 6'4"
WSH - Joe Finley 6'8"
DAL - Matt Niskanen 6'
TBL - Vladimir Mihalik 6'8"
Average 6'4

2006

STL - Erik Johnson 6'4"
SJS - Ty Wishart 6'4"
ANA - Mark Mitera 6'3"
MTL - David Fischer 6'3"
NYR - Bobby Sanquinetti 6'3"
BUF - Dennis Persson 6'1"
DAL - Ivan Vischnevskiy 6'
PHX - Chris Summers 6'2"
NJD - Mathew Corrente 6'
Average 6'2"

2007

LAK - Thomas Hickey 5'11"
WSH - Karl Alzner 6'3"
FLA - Keaton Ellerby 6'4"
MTL - Ryan McDonagh 6'1"
COL - Kevin Shattenkirk 5'11"
EDM - Alex Plante - 6'4"
STL - Ian Cole 6'1"
NSH - Jonathan Blum 6'1"
DET - Brendan Smith 6'1"
SJS - Nick Petrecki 6'3"
PHX - Nick Ross 6'1
Average 6'2"

2008

LAK - Drew Doughty 6'
ATL - Zach Bogosian 6'3"
STL - Alex Pietroangelo 6'3"
TOR - Luke Schenn 6'2"
BUF - Tyler Myers 6'8"
LAK - Colten Tuebert 6'4"
OTT - Erik Karlsson 6'
ANA - Jake Gardiner 6'1"
PHI - Luca Sbisa 6'2"
NYR - Michael Del Zotto 6'2"
Min - Tyler Cuma 6'2"
WSH - John Carlson 6'3"
Average 6'2"

2009

TBL - Viktor Hedman 6'6"
PHX - Oliver Ekman-Larsson 6'2"
NSH - Ryan Ellis 5'10"
NYI - Calvin de Haan 6'1"
FLA - Dmitry Kulikov 6'1"
MIN - Nick Leddy 5'11"
STL - David Runblad 6'2"
CBJ - John Moore 6'2"
CGY - Tim Erikson 6'2"
CHI - Dylon Olsen 6'2"
PIT - Simon Despres 6'4"
Average 6'2"

2010

FLA - Erik Gudbranson 6'4"
NYR - Dylan McIlrath 6'4"
ANA - Cam Fowler 6'1"
PHX - Brandon Gormley 6'1"
LAK - Derek Forbert 6'5"
MTL - Jarred Tinordi 6'6"
BUF - Mark Pysyk 6'1"
Average 6'2"

Many will say the Panthers and Rangers reached at taking Gudbranson and McIlrath ahead of Fowler and Gormley. No arguing what Fowler has done this season, but it's far too early to judge. This may be the biggest case of drafting for size has been a mistake.

On the flip side, teams are trending towards bigger forwards. Go figure !